Philippine carriers are already trimming their flight schedules as a looming jet fuel shortage threatens to deepen into a full-blown aviation crisis, with industry analysts warning the worst may arrive before the northern hemisphere summer gets underway.
Aviation data firm Cirium has tracked a measurable decline in airline capacity across Asia for May, as carriers pull back routes to protect whatever fuel reserves they have left. Richard Evans, a senior consultant at Cirium, placed the Philippine Airlines (PAL) cutback at roughly 10 percent below its year-ago planned capacity — a figure that mirrors the broader pattern across Southeast Asia.
“Southeast Asian carriers appear to have been greatly impacted, consistent with media reports of fuel supply shortages in Vietnam and the Philippines. Airlines from Malaysia and Indonesia are also cutting planned schedules by around 10 to 15 percent,” Evans said.
Both PAL and Cebu Pacific have suspended multiple routes until October, though both carriers say their current stocks should hold through June while they pursue supply negotiations with fuel vendors.
The International Energy Agency has warned that Asia and the Pacific face some of the sharpest shortfalls in jet fuel, naphtha, and liquefied petroleum gas — a direct consequence of production cutbacks and supply disruptions tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict.
Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), cited the IEA findings in a call on aviation regulators to begin preparing emergency contingency measures, including protocols for rationing scenarios where carriers may only be able to purchase fuel in capped volumes. He also urged a temporary suspension of the use-it-or-lose-it rule governing airport slot allocations, warning that cancellations tied to fuel scarcity could otherwise cost carriers their operating rights at key airports.
“The IEA’s assessment of potential jet fuel shortages is sobering. We have also estimated that by the end of May we could start to see some cancellations in Europe for lack of jet fuel, and this is already happening in parts of Asia,” Walsh said.
Jet fuel prices, while still historically elevated, have eased somewhat — IATA’s latest monitor shows a weekly decline of seven percent to $184.63 per barrel as of April 17, though that remains nearly double the sub-$100 levels that preceded the current crisis.
In Manila, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has directed the Department of Energy to keep petroleum supply lines from being disrupted. Presidential Communications Office Undersecretary Claire Castro, speaking after a Malacañang committee meeting, said Marcos made clear that a supply stagnation is not acceptable.
“The President insisted to Energy Secretary Sharon (Garin) that the supply of crude or petroleum products should not be disrupted, because the President does not want a stagnation,” Castro said.
A relative cushion for both PAL and Cebu Pacific is the financial position they enter the crisis with — both carriers reported stronger profits in 2025, giving them more room to absorb the commercial impact of reduced operations.
