The alert is already live. From Thursday, July 30, through Monday, August 3, the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) expects scattered showers to move across the country — a forecast that landed only after Fujairah, Ras Al Khaimah and Al Ain had already been hit by rain and, in places, hail over the preceding days.
That the mercury refuses to drop is the part worth understanding. The same climate driver behind the rain is also keeping the heat locked in. According to NCM meteorologist Ahmed Habib, speaking to Khaleej Times, an active El Niño phase is steering conditions in the region right now — and while it loads the atmosphere with enough moisture to build convective clouds and trigger rainfall, it does nothing to cool the air. If anything, the pattern intensifies the heat it carries into the Gulf.
Residents have been living with the moisture for days without naming it. The stickiness after sunset, the heavier air overnight — that is El Niño raising humidity levels over the UAE. The phenomenon itself is a Pacific-born cycle that returns every two to seven years and runs for close to a year, warming the ocean’s equatorial surface far past normal and bending the routes that global winds and rain typically travel.
Its grip on the UAE is still loose for now. “At present, during the summer season, its influence is stronger in East Asia than in West Asia,” Habib said, adding that the shift is coming: “From autumn, particularly in October and November, El Niño’s effect will be felt over our region.”
Across the five-day window, the pattern holds fairly steady: fair to partly cloudy skies, convective clouds building mostly over eastern and southern areas by afternoon with a chance of rain, light to moderate winds that occasionally freshen and raise dust, and slight seas in both the Arabian Gulf and the Oman Sea. Temperatures climb as the weekend progresses, with interior highs pushing toward 49°C by Saturday and holding there into Monday.
| Date | Coastal | Interior | Mountains |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Jul 30 | 29–44°C | 25–48°C | 26–38°C |
| Fri, Jul 31 | 28–44°C | 25–48°C | 27–38°C |
| Sat, Aug 1 | 29–44°C | 25–49°C | 27–39°C |
| Sun, Aug 2 | 29–46°C | 26–49°C | 28–40°C |
| Mon, Aug 3 | 27–46°C | 26–49°C | 29–40°C |
Whenever the rain picks up, the country’s response runs on a color-coded scale — yellow, orange or red — set according to how hard a given area is expected to be hit. Drivers get the standard instruction to slow down, respect reduced limits and hold to traffic rules. Outdoor enthusiasts hear a blunter one: stay out of wadis and valleys, which can fill and carry off a vehicle within minutes of overflowing.
For hail, the NCM keeps its message narrow — take forecasts only from official channels, do what the authorities instruct, and don’t pass along rumors.
