The calendar still says spring, but the UAE’s thermometers have not been following the script. Several parts of the country recorded readings of 45°C in the final days of April — temperatures that typically belong to the peak of summer, not a season still weeks away from its official close.
According to Gulf News, Emirates Astronomical Society Chairman Ibrahim Al Jarwan, who also sits on the Arab Union for Astronomy and Space Sciences, described the spike as above the expected range for this time of year. Late April highs would normally stay under 38°C in most areas, making the current readings a deviation of several degrees from what the season usually delivers. Al Jarwan noted, however, that such swings are not unheard of — they tend to produce the impression that summer has set in early, particularly when the heat intensifies sharply after mid-April.
The astronomical calendar offers its own explanation. The Emirates Astronomical Society marks April 28 as the beginning of “Ghayoub Al Thuraya” — the disappearance of the Pleiades star cluster from the night sky. Traditionally, this forty-day period signals the onset of intense heat and dryness, a time when desert communities historically scaled back outdoor activity and adjusted their routines to the conditions.
As May begins, conditions are expected to level off rather than escalate immediately. Coastal areas should see daytime highs generally between 38°C and 40°C, while inland regions are forecast to edge toward 44°C or 45°C as the month advances. Those figures place May within its normal range, even if April’s closing days ran well ahead of it.
The more consequential shift, Al Jarwan said, comes from mid-May onward, when the Indian monsoon low-pressure system begins asserting itself over the broader region. That system draws hot, increasingly humid air masses into the Gulf, pushing temperatures higher across the country and sustaining them there. Southern and deep-inland areas — particularly Al Dhafra and the desert stretches near Al Ain — could approach 50°C at the height of summer.
An additional variable looms over the season. Meteorological agencies including the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts have placed the probability of El Niño developing between May and July 2026 at 61 percent, with the event projected to peak in the autumn and early winter. El Niño conditions typically push sea surface temperatures higher in the Gulf and amplify existing heat trends — a factor that could make the months ahead more intense than a typical UAE summer.
