UAE economy posts 5.6% growth in 2025, same pace seen for 2026

The UAE’s banking sector crossed a regional milestone in 2025, with total assets reaching AED 5.4 trillion on the back of a 17.9 percent rise in the credit portfolio and a 16.2 percent increase in deposits — figures the UAE Central Bank cited as evidence of the sector’s capacity to absorb growing credit demand.

The banking data was part of the regulator’s annual report, released Thursday, which confirmed the national economy expanded at a real GDP rate of 5.6 percent last year. The same growth rate is projected to hold through 2026, driven by non-hydrocarbon activity spanning financial and insurance services, manufacturing, and construction, alongside an anticipated recovery in oil output following the latest OPEC+ quota adjustment.

Beyond 2026, the central bank flagged a likely moderation. “A projected moderation in oil GDP in 2027, alongside continuous, sustained growth in non-oil activities, could lead to overall GDP growth of around 4.4 percent,” the report stated.

The insurance sector also posted notable gains, with gross written premiums climbing 15.5 percent to AED 75.2 billion. Total insurance assets reached AED 166.7 billion.

Non-oil foreign goods trade for the first nine months of 2025 surged 24.6 percent year-on-year to AED 2,530 billion. Non-oil exports jumped 45 percent over the same period, with re-exports up 13 percent and imports rising 22.3 percent. China led the UAE’s trading partners at 11.2 percent of non-oil trade volume, followed by India at 8.1 percent and Switzerland at 6.3 percent. Gold, telecommunications equipment, and motor vehicles ranked as the top traded commodities.

The government’s fiscal footing remained stable. General revenue between January and September 2025 reached AED 408.5 billion — a 1.3 percent year-on-year gain, with non-tax revenue streams accounting for a 24.4 percent surge. Expenditures rose 12.8 percent to AED 346.8 billion, including a 26 percent increase in capital spending. The resulting fiscal surplus for the period stood at AED 61.7 billion.

Property and hospitality indicators reinforced the broader economic picture. Residential sales transactions in Abu Dhabi and Dubai grew an estimated 22 percent in 2025. Hotels recorded 23.3 million guests in the first nine months of the year, a 4.9 percent increase, while average occupancy climbed to 79.2 percent. Passenger traffic through UAE airports exceeded 108 million in the same period.

The central bank attributed the year’s performance to economic diversification strategies and monetary policies it said had kept inflation at stable levels. “Growth in the current year is expected to be driven primarily by non-hydrocarbon sectors, particularly financial and insurance services, manufacturing and construction, alongside a rebound in hydrocarbon GDP following the most recent OPEC+ quota increase,” it said.