Metro Manila voters split evenly between Vice President Sara Duterte and Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo in a hypothetical 2028 presidential contest, each drawing 34 percent in a region where Robredo had commanded a wide advantage only months earlier. That deadlock, with roughly a third of respondents in the capital undecided, marked the sharpest change captured in OCTA Research’s second-quarter Tugon ng Masa survey, released Wednesday.
OCTA attributed the reversal in the National Capital Region less to voters switching sides than to Robredo backers moving into the undecided column. The previous quarter had shown her holding a 20-point cushion there.
Nationally, Duterte stayed ahead. Among the 1,200 adults polled, 43 percent said they would back her if the election were held during the survey window, against 34 percent for Robredo. Another 22 percent were undecided or picked neither, and one percent declined to respond.
The nine-point national spread represents a tighter race than the first quarter, when Duterte led 46 to 35. Her figure dropped three points over the period, Robredo’s eased by one, and the bloc of voters who named no preference expanded from 19 to 22 percent.
Regional results told a divided story. Robredo built a commanding position across Balance Luzon at 51 percent to 27, while Duterte held equally lopsided margins in the Visayas, 51 to 26, and in Mindanao, where she took 76 percent to Robredo’s six.
Class-based patterns favored Duterte among lower-income respondents. She led Class D voters 43 to 36 and posted a wider gap in Class E, 51 to 31. The two effectively tied within Class ABC, where Duterte drew 36 percent, Robredo 27, and an identical 36 percent stayed uncommitted.
Age brackets sorted the candidates neatly. Duterte’s peak came from respondents between 25 and 34, who backed her at 61 percent, while Robredo reached the same 61-percent mark among those 75 and older.
Fieldwork ran July 4 to 11 through face-to-face interviews with respondents aged 18 and up across the country, carrying a margin of error of three percentage points at a 95-percent confidence level.
OCTA cautioned that the numbers capture sentiment nearly two years out and carry no weight as a forecast of how the 2028 vote will land.
