A very strong El Niño is taking shape in the Pacific, and the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) says its influence on the UAE could linger well past the phenomenon itself, stretching into April 2027.
The Niño 3.4 index, a key gauge of sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, currently reads 1.8°C. By the NCM’s classification, that figure alone is enough to categorize the event as a strong El Niño. Forecasters expect it to climb further, with the anomaly potentially hitting roughly 3°C during an October-to-November 2026 peak—a threshold that would mark the event as very strong.
Confidence in the forecast is high. The NCM puts the odds of El Niño holding from October 2026 into February 2027 at 99 percent, and noted that its climate models agree on the timing of the peak. Backing this up, the World Meteorological Organization stated last week that the chances of the pattern lasting through February 2027 were close to certain, with intensification to very strong levels anticipated before a late-2026 crest.
Within the UAE, the months from October through February are projected to see temperatures and rainfall land somewhere between typical and above-typical for the season. The NCM flagged the potential for what it termed “significant weather activities,” with the greatest likelihood arriving toward the end of that window.
These projections build on the center’s earlier work, which had already signaled that the emerging El Niño would shape conditions across the 2026-27 winter. Those earlier assessments pointed to a milder winter than usual, a rainy season that begins sooner than normal, and stretches of heavier downpours—though the NCM has cautioned this should not be read as unbroken rainfall.
El Niño describes a recurring warm phase in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. When it sets in, it can reshape atmospheric circulation and redistribute heat and precipitation across large parts of the globe. In the current cycle, the NCM expects the phenomenon to hold through February, even as the weather effects it drives across the UAE persist for roughly two more months afterward.
