A new poll measuring hypothetical voter preferences for the 2028 presidential race shows the gap between two potential contenders closing, though Vice President Sara Duterte retains a commanding national lead.
The Tugon ng Masa Q1 2026 non-commissioned survey by OCTA Research, conducted March 19 to 25 among 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above, found Duterte at 46% against Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo’s 35% in a direct head-to-head scenario. One in five respondents — 19% — had yet to choose a side.
The current margin is notably tighter than what previous polling captured. “While VP Duterte continues to hold a clear national lead, the current margin is narrower than what OCTA observed in comparable commissioned TNM surveys over the past year, where VP Duterte led Mayor Robredo by margins ranging from roughly 20 to 30 percentage points,” the research group said.
Geographically, the two candidates draw from sharply different bases. Duterte’s support is anchored in Mindanao at 88% and the Visayas at 53%, which OCTA characterized as a “broad and electorally efficient coalition.” Robredo, by contrast, leads in the National Capital Region at 52% and Balance Luzon at 47% — areas the research group described as “politically strategic and vote-dense.”
Across socioeconomic classes, Duterte led in every bracket. Her strongest showing was among Class E voters at 56%, while Robredo’s best performance came from Class ABC respondents at 39%. OCTA noted that Robredo “continues to trail more substantially among lower-income respondents.”
The undecided bloc remains a live variable in the race. OCTA pointed out that “nearly one in five respondents remain uncommitted, indicating that a substantial segment of the electorate remains open to persuasion.”
Duterte formally announced her presidential bid in February. Robredo, on Tuesday, said she would not seek the presidency in 2028, stating instead that she intends to run for re-election as Naga City mayor.
OCTA’s assessment placed Duterte as “the candidate to beat” while still acknowledging Robredo’s staying power. “The race is no longer defined simply by who leads, but by how each candidate’s coalition is distributed — and how much of the remaining electorate is still in play,” it said.
The survey carries a ±3% margin of error at the 95% confidence level, with subnational estimates for NCR, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao carrying a ±6% margin at the same confidence level. OCTA stressed that the results represent “an early-stage hypothetical vote-intention measure” and reflect current public sentiment rather than a forecast of actual electoral outcomes.
