Drivers across the Emirates face a fourth straight monthly increase at the pump in June, though the rise is far gentler than the steep correction that followed the early weeks of the Iran conflict.
Under the country’s market-linked pricing model, in place since 2015, local rates track international crude with a roughly one-month lag. May’s oil market sat high enough to push June rates upward, even as prices began retreating from their peaks.
Super 98 will sell at AED 3.95 per litre next month, a gain of 29 fils, while Special 95 moves to AED 3.83, up 28 fils. Those figures follow May’s third consecutive climb, when Super 98 reached AED 3.66, Special 95 AED 3.55, and E-Plus AED 3.48. The trajectory marks a jump of close to 50 percent since February, when Super 98 cost just AED 2.45.
Brent crude held near $103 a barrel for much of May, above April’s $99 average, keeping pressure on regional pricing. Yet the same benchmark slipped under $100 in the final stretch, settling around $91 on Friday amid signals of headway in talks between Washington and Tehran. That swing has left June in a holding pattern: crude is no longer spiking as it did across March and April, but remains too elevated to deliver relief.
The Strait of Hormuz sits at the centre of the uncertainty. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and fuel moves through the passage, and traffic has not fully recovered from recent naval restrictions and disruptions. Markets stay jittery because supply remains constrained, and crude has grown unusually sensitive to each turn in the negotiations—easing on signs of agreement, rebounding whenever doubt returns.
Diesel may prove stickier than petrol. Demand from logistics, transport, and industry tends to stay firm even as crude softens, which historically slows any decline. Sustained Brent below $100, combined with steadier shipping through Hormuz, could open the door to clearer reductions later in the summer.
Whether that materialises hinges on three variables traders are tracking closely: where Brent settles relative to the $100 line, any concrete movement toward a US-Iran deal, and the pace at which shipping normalises through the strait.
