A congressional research body is warning that the ongoing oil price crisis in the Middle East could push hundreds of thousands of Filipino families into poverty, with the most severe scenario affecting more than 396,000 households that are currently classified as low-income.
The Congressional Policy and Budget Research Department projected that under the worst-case oil shock, 396,067 households could fall below the poverty threshold — a figure that drops to 293,152 under a moderate scenario and 185,654 under the mildest of the three assessed situations.
Rather than limiting assistance to those already officially categorized as poor, the CPBRD is pushing the Marcos administration to widen the reach of its cash aid program to cover low-income families who are at risk of being driven into poverty by the crisis itself.
“A relief measure limited to the officially poor provides no protection to the households the shock itself pushes into poverty and that extending coverage to the low-income class is both more effective and more fiscally efficient,” the CPBRD said.
The think tank backed its recommendation with figures on fiscal efficiency, noting that targeting low-income households protects 3,174 newly poor families for every billion pesos spent — more than three times the coverage rate of a universal program, which it said would cost more than three times as much for less than a third of that outcome.
While poverty risks mount, the country’s fuel supply has remained stable. Department of Energy data showed that as of May 8, national fuel inventory can sustain an average of 50.70 days of consumption, meeting the DOE’s 50-day benchmark.
Energy Secretary Sharon Garin urged the public not to become complacent despite the buffer. “Despite this level of comfort, let’s continue fuel and energy saving habits,” she said.
Pump price adjustments taking effect today, May 12, bring some relief for commuters and public transport operators, with diesel dropping by at least ₱9.57 per liter and kerosene falling by at least ₱13.30 per liter. Gasoline prices, by contrast, will edge up by as much as ₱0.47 per liter.
After the rollback, diesel in Metro Manila and other highly urbanized cities is estimated to range between ₱71.19 and ₱89.91 per liter — once again cheaper than gasoline, which is now pegged at roughly ₱72.47 to ₱106.97 per liter.
