A fresh Octa Research survey has placed two hypothetical 2028 presidential-vice presidential slates in a dead heat, with the pairing of Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Sen. Raffy Tulfo holding a slim edge over the tandem of Vice President Sara Duterte and Sen. Imee Marcos that falls within the poll’s margin of error.
The “Tugon ng Masa” results, made public Wednesday, recorded 45 percent support for a Robredo presidency paired with Tulfo, against 42 percent who backed Duterte for the top post alongside Marcos. Because the three-point gap between them matches the study’s ±3-point margin of error, the two slates are considered statistically even. A statistical tie is registered whenever the spread between choices falls below that margin.
Regional numbers told sharply different stories. Robredo and Tulfo dominated Balance Luzon at 61 percent and led the National Capital Region with 56 percent, more than double the 22 percent logged there by their rivals. Duterte and Marcos, by contrast, overwhelmed the field in Mindanao, taking 90 percent of the vote in that region.
The two camps also split along class lines. Robredo-Tulfo drew its heaviest backing from Class D at 48 percent, trailed by Classes ABC at 41 percent and Class E at 33 percent. Duterte-Marcos flipped that pattern, peaking with Class E at 53 percent, then Class D at 41 percent and Classes ABC at 37 percent.
Age produced its own divide. The Robredo-Tulfo slate ran strongest among the oldest voters, reaching 76 percent with those 75 and above and 60 percent in the 65-to-74 bracket, though it also drew 52 percent from the youngest 18-to-24 group. Its remaining figures were 48 percent (55-64), 43 percent (45-54), 35 percent (35-44), and 33 percent (25-34). Duterte-Marcos performed best in the middle of the age range, tying at 50 percent among both the 25-to-34 and 35-to-44 brackets, followed by 48 percent (45-54), 40 percent (55-64), 32 percent (18-24), 29 percent (65-74), and 23 percent (75+).
Education, geography, and gender rounded out the breakdown. Robredo-Tulfo led among urban respondents at 48 percent, while Duterte-Marcos edged ahead in rural areas at 47 percent. Both slates fared better with male voters, where Robredo-Tulfo took 48 percent and Duterte-Marcos 43 percent, compared with 42 percent and 41 percent respectively among women. By schooling, Robredo-Tulfo topped out at 54 percent among those whose education ended at the vocational level, followed by high school finishers at 47 percent, elementary or no formal schooling at 46 percent, and college or post-graduate respondents at 36 percent. Duterte-Marcos peaked at 45 percent with high school finishers, drew 40 percent each from elementary-or-below and college-or-above respondents, and bottomed out at 30 percent among vocational graduates.
Octa conducted the face-to-face survey from July 4 to 11 among 1,200 respondents aged 18 and older, both male and female, with a 95 percent confidence level. The current standings mark a tightening from the firm’s May round, when Robredo-Tulfo posted 44 percent to the 40 percent recorded by Duterte-Marcos.
