Conviction bar for Sara Duterte may slip to 15 votes if ‘Bato’ is tagged a fugitive, expert says

A constitutional law expert raised the possibility Friday that the number of votes needed to convict Vice President Sara Duterte in her impeachment trial could fall to 15, hinging on how the Senate treats Sen. Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa amid his current legal troubles.

Speaking on ANC’s Headstart, retired Supreme Court Associate Justice Adolfo Azcuna laid out the math behind the conviction threshold. Under normal circumstances, securing a guilty verdict requires the backing of two-thirds of the chamber, which works out to 16 senators. Azcuna noted that this baseline holds even for senators barred from taking part in the proceedings, since they remain part of the total used to calculate the required margin.

The exception, according to Azcuna, would arise if Dela Rosa is formally regarded as a fugitive. In that scenario, he argued, the senator’s situation could amount to what he described as “constructive resignation.”

“Because being a fugitive entails running away from the legal system. And if one runs away from the legal system, he relinquishes own membership in that system and therefore he may be considered as having a resigned, constructive resignation,” Azcuna said.

Dela Rosa’s whereabouts have been unknown since the International Criminal Court made public an arrest warrant bearing his name. The tribunal has identified him among the alleged “co-perpetrators” tied to former President Rodrigo Duterte’s purported crimes against humanity, a case rooted in the many deaths logged throughout the administration’s anti-drug crackdown.

Efforts to locate the senator have run into complications. The National Bureau of Investigation said in early June that it was checking information placing Dela Rosa aboard a yacht bound for an unnamed province. NBI Director Melvin Matibag, however, cautioned that the tip could have been planted to throw off the agents assigned to take him into custody.

The chamber is scheduled to convene Duterte’s trial on July 6.

Separately, Sen. Jinggoy Estrada has been booked into the New Quezon City Jail in Payatas over a plunder charge linked to the flood control corruption scandal.