Warm Pacific waters are driving one of the most severe El Niño events on record, with the World Meteorological Organization now placing near-certain odds on it stretching into next year. Speaking Thursday, the U.N. weather agency reported that its models point to roughly a 100% chance the pattern holds through February 2027 — a level of confidence, according to Reuters, that the WMO has never before assigned to such a forecast.
Ocean readings are already registering more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over normal levels. That places the current event among just four ranked in the highest “very strong” tier since records began in 1950. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the phenomenon could surpass anything measured to date: “If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts,” she told reporters in Geneva.
El Niño develops when trade winds slacken and sea surface temperatures climb across the eastern Pacific. The cycle returns every two to seven years, runs for as long as a year, and typically brings heavy rainfall and drought to Latin America. In its most powerful form, it can reshape temperature and precipitation across the globe and drive disasters ranging from typhoons to prolonged dry spells.
Although the pattern arises naturally and is not a direct product of fossil fuel emissions, hotter seas can amplify it. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres framed the escalation in stark terms: “El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.”
Agricultural damage is already showing up in tropical zones, where the event has battered soft commodities and pushed Central America’s Dry Corridor into a severe food crisis. Forecasters expect conditions to reach their height late this year before carrying over into 2027.
That lingering influence is likely to push global temperatures higher. Wilfran Moufouma Okia, who leads the agency’s climate prediction services, noted that a temporary spike often trails these events, citing 2024 — the hottest year measured so far. “2027 has the potential to be the warmest on record,” he said.
In anticipation, the WMO says it is expanding its preparedness and early-warning work so governments can act ahead of the worst impacts, including shifting to drought-resistant crops where needed. Saulo said the agency intends to coordinate closely with U.N. and humanitarian partners to deliver the climate data that sectors like agriculture, health, energy, and water management rely on.
