The Emirates Astronomical Society has flagged a stretch of potentially volatile weather heading toward the UAE, with the country’s annual spring disturbance season set to run from March 20 to May 10.
Known locally as “Sarayat” — or alternatively as “Al Marawih,” a name derived from the cloud formations that tend to build during afternoon and evening hours — the seasonal pattern brings a broad range of atmospheric hazards, from thunderstorms to desert sandstorms.
Ibrahim Al Jarwan, board chairman of the Emirates Astronomical Society and a member of the Arab Union for Space and Astronomy Sciences, said the underlying driver is a clash between air masses at different levels of the atmosphere. As surface temperatures climb past 30°C, the upper atmosphere remains comparatively cold, and warm, moisture-laden air pushing in from central and eastern Africa collides with it.
“These conditions can bring heavy thunderstorms over short periods, accompanied by strong downdraft winds that may change direction,” Al Jarwan said.
That same atmospheric dynamic can give rise to a wide cloud belt stretching from central and eastern Africa across the Arabian Peninsula and into the Arabian Gulf, potentially delivering heavy rain, lightning, and thunder across the UAE.
The season does not always arrive on schedule. The society noted that strong atmospheric disturbances can emerge several days ahead of the official window — a phase referred to as “pre-Sarayat.”
Beyond the rain risk, Al Jarwan warned that dry northern winds are also typical during this period, occasionally surpassing 50 km/h and triggering blowing dust and sandstorms across desert terrain and other exposed areas. Wind direction can shift multiple times within a single day.
The society’s warning carries the weight of recent precedent. A deep low-pressure system between March 8 and 10, 2024 brought heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds to the country. Weeks later, another bout of severe rain from April 14 to 17 triggered flooding in multiple areas — a sequence that underscores how consequential the Sarayat window can be.
