The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) has cautioned that the likelihood of the so-called “Big One” striking Metro Manila grows as the year 2058 approaches.
Phivolcs Director Teresito Bacolcol explained in an interview with ANC’s Headstart that while predicting the exact time of the massive quake is impossible, scientists can estimate its possible occurrence based on historical patterns.
The “Big One” refers to a potential magnitude 7.2 earthquake that could devastate Metro Manila and nearby provinces once the West Valley Fault moves again. This major fault line cuts through Quezon City, Marikina, Pasig, Makati, Taguig, and Muntinlupa, as well as Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, and Laguna.
“The West Valley Fault last moved in 1658,” Bacolcol said, noting that its estimated recurrence interval ranges from 400 to 600 years. “That means that as we get closer to 2058, the probability of this 7.2 recurring is tumaataas.”
He emphasized that the timeline remains uncertain—“give or take several decades”—but warned that the movement could happen earlier, which is why authorities urge preparedness.
Bacolcol also pointed out that the Philippines sits on a complex network of 180 active fault segments and six active trenches, making frequent tremors a normal part of its geology. The country experiences around 30 earthquakes daily, most too weak to be felt.
Recent quakes across different regions were traced to various fault systems: the Philippine Fault caused the magnitude 4.4 quake in La Union; the Bogo Bay Fault triggered the magnitude 6.9 tremor in Cebu; the Manila Trench caused the magnitude 5.1 in Zambales; and the Philippine Trench was behind the magnitude 7.4 in Davao Oriental.
“Normal lang ito,” Bacolcol said, explaining that the series of strong quakes does not indicate an abnormal pattern.
He encouraged the public to use hazardhunter.ph to check if their area lies near active faults, identify hazards, and find safe open spaces for evacuation in case of an earthquake.
