Filipinos identifying themselves as supporters of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. increased in the third quarter of 2024, while those expressing allegiance to former President Rodrigo Duterte saw a slight decline, according to the latest survey conducted by OCTA Research.
Based on the results of the Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey released on Monday, 38% of adult Filipinos now identify as pro-Marcos, marking a 2% increase from the second quarter. Meanwhile, those who align themselves with the Duterte camp dropped to 15%, a decrease of 1% compared to the previous survey conducted in March.
OCTA Research noted that 26% of Filipinos consider themselves independent, down 5% from the previous quarter. These respondents do not affiliate with any political camps, including pro-Marcos, pro-Duterte, or the opposition.
The research group said that while the third-quarter results showed minor shifts at the national level, a broader analysis of data from the past three quarters pointed to “a continuing upward trend” of support for Marcos, alongside a “continuing downward trend” for those who support Duterte.
The survey also revealed that 7% of adult Filipinos expressed support for the opposition, reflecting a 2% rise from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, 14% of respondents were ambivalent about their political leanings.
In terms of regional distribution, pro-Marcos sentiment was highest in Balanced Luzon (43%), followed by the National Capital Region (42%), the Visayas (37%), and Mindanao (25%). Class E respondents showed the strongest support for Marcos at 40%, followed closely by classes ABCD at 38%.
Duterte’s base remained strongest in Mindanao, where 48% of the population still backs the former president. In contrast, support for Duterte in the NCR was at 6%, while it stood at 3% in Balanced Luzon and 12% in the Visayas. Support for the Duterte camp was 22% among Class E, and 15% across classes D and ABC.
Support for the opposition varied by region, with the Visayas leading at 14%, followed by the NCR at 10%. Balanced Luzon and Mindanao registered lower opposition support at 5% and 4%, respectively. Socioeconomically, the opposition found its strongest backing in Class ABC at 15%.
The survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with over 1,200 respondents from August 28 to September 2, 2024, with a ±3% margin of error at the national level and a ±6% margin of error at the regional level.
