Residents across the UAE are being advised to prepare for what is expected to be the coldest phase of the winter season, with temperatures forecast to reach their lowest levels in mid-January, according to astronomical and climate observations.
Ibrahim Al Jarwan, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Emirates Astronomical Society and a member of the Arab Union for Astronomy and Space Sciences, said the period between January 10 and January 22 is historically the coldest window of the year in the region. He explained that this timeframe is traditionally referred to in local folklore as “Dur Al Sittin,” a period long associated with intense cold conditions.
In popular descriptions passed down through generations, the chill during this phase has been likened to the sharpness of a blade, reflecting how biting the cold can feel, especially during the early hours of the day. Al Jarwan noted that dawn temperatures in desert areas frequently fall below 5°C, making mornings particularly cold compared to the rest of the winter season.
The timing of this cold spell also aligns with a well-known astronomical marker. Al Jarwan said the period coincides with the alignment of the Pleiades star cluster around dinnertime, an event that Arab culture has historically linked to the onset of severe cold across the region.
Beyond temperature patterns, January also brings notable lunar events. Al Jarwan said the first full moon of 2026, commonly known as the “Wolf Moon,” will appear as a supermoon, as it will coincide with the Moon’s closest approach to Earth in its monthly orbit. The name originates from agricultural traditions in North America and Western Europe, where heightened wolf activity was observed during periods of harsh winter and limited food supplies. He added that the same full moon is also known by other traditional names, including the “Harvest Moon” and the “Hunter’s Moon.”
Rainfall data for the month suggests no unusual deviations from seasonal norms. Climate records indicate that January typically sees between 12 and 18 millimetres of rain spread across approximately six to eight days.
Addressing public expectations around long-range weather outlooks, Al Jarwan cautioned that reliable forecasts are limited in scope. He said current indicators do not point to the arrival of a low-pressure system in the near term and stressed that forecast accuracy generally extends to a maximum of five days.
He explained that atmospheric behaviour is highly complex and sensitive, noting that small variations in weather conditions can trigger significant changes over time, a concept commonly described as the “butterfly effect.” Forecasting models, he said, depend on mathematical calculations supported by data gathered from satellites, ground stations, radars and weather balloons, though gaps in data coverage can affect precision.
According to Al Jarwan, forecast reliability decreases as the projection window expands, with two-day forecasts exceeding 90% accuracy in strong models, five-day forecasts averaging around 75%, and ten-day forecasts falling below 50%.
