A new survey by opinion research firm WR Numero found that 40.1% of over 2,400 likely voters in the Philippines identify as “pro-Duterte,” referring to supporters of former President Rodrigo Duterte, his family, or allied politicians. While this is a sizable group, it still falls short of a majority.
Released on May 6, the survey not only asked respondents about their senatorial and party-list preferences but also their political leanings. It revealed that 31.4% of voters consider themselves independent, while 28.6% align with either President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (15%) or the opposition, including the “pink” movement (13.6%).
According to WR Numero President and political scientist Cleve Arguelles, the numbers may reflect a hardened base around the Duterte camp, especially amid recent controversies. He noted, “The 40% who identified as pro-Duterte may also include those who oppose holding former President Rodrigo Duterte accountable for alleged crimes against humanity before the International Criminal Court (ICC).”
Arguelles also explained the difference in how various political groups form their support. “Support for the Dutertes is often rooted in emotional attachment,” he said, adding that this makes it harder for their followers to be critical or conditional in their backing.
In contrast, Arguelles observed that supporters of the liberal or opposition blocs tend to rally around specific issues or policy agendas. He cited a recent example involving former Commission on Audit commissioner Heidi Mendoza, who faced backlash online after expressing views that didn’t align with progressive causes. “Liberal support tends to be more conditional,” he added.
Despite the strong Duterte identification, only two Duterte-aligned senatorial candidates — Senators Bong Go and Bato dela Rosa — are currently projected to make it to the winning circle based on voter preference.
The findings also echo trends in recent performance ratings, where President Marcos Jr. has seen a decline while Vice President Sara Duterte continues to enjoy stronger public approval.
