The world is heading toward more years of record-breaking heat, putting millions at increased risk of extreme weather and environmental upheaval, according to a joint forecast released Wednesday by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Met Office.
Scientists now estimate there is an 80% chance that Earth will experience another record-hot year within the next five years. More alarmingly, there’s an 86% likelihood that at least one of those years will breach the 1.5°C warming threshold established under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement — and a 70% chance that the five-year average will also cross that line.
While global warming figures may appear abstract, experts say the real-world impact is devastating and immediate.
“Higher global mean temperatures may sound abstract, but it translates in real life to a higher chance of extreme weather: stronger hurricanes, stronger precipitation, droughts,” said Cornell climate scientist Natalie Mahowald in an AFP report.
The new forecast includes data from over 200 computer simulations conducted by 10 scientific centers worldwide. These projections indicate the world may be approaching a new tipping point: a potential breach of 2°C of warming above pre-industrial levels — a scenario long viewed as a worst-case outcome.
Though technically the 1.5°C threshold refers to a 20-year average and has not yet been officially surpassed, WMO climate services director Chris Hewitt said current patterns indicate global temperatures are already hovering around 1.4°C above mid-1800s levels.
Richard Betts of the UK Met Office warned that this warming trend is likely to increase deadly heatwaves unless more protective measures are put in place. “This will put more people than ever at risk of severe heat waves, bringing more deaths and severe health impacts,” he said.
In the Arctic, where warming is occurring at more than three times the global average, accelerated ice melt and sea level rise are expected to worsen.
Climate scientist Rob Jackson of Stanford University noted a worrying trend: “Record temperatures immediately become the new normal.”
