NASA has identified an asteroid with a 3.1% probability of striking Earth on December 22, 2032, making it the most significant space impact threat ever recorded. The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, was first spotted on December 27, 2023, by Chile’s El Sauce Observatory and is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet (40–90 meters) wide.
Despite the rising impact probability, experts urge the public not to panic. Scientists believe the risk will likely decrease as more data is collected. The James Webb Space Telescope will soon focus on the asteroid to refine its trajectory.
“This is not the planet killer,” said Richard Moissl of the European Space Agency’s planetary defense office in an AFP report. However, if 2024 YR4 were to hit, it could generate an airburst explosion equivalent to eight megatons of TNT—over 500 times the Hiroshima bomb’s power. The potential impact corridor includes the eastern Pacific, South America, Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia.
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) flagged 2024 YR4 after its impact probability exceeded 1% in January. If the risk surpasses 10%, the United Nations could recommend emergency preparedness measures for affected areas.
Scientists remain confident that Earth has time to prepare if necessary. NASA’s 2022 DART mission demonstrated that an asteroid’s trajectory can be altered, with potential solutions ranging from spacecraft deflection to nuclear intervention as a last resort.
