Oil production cuts across the Middle East have deepened sharply, with total crude output losses now estimated at 7 to 10 million barrels per day as the ongoing US-Iran war chokes off the region’s export routes and fills available storage to capacity.
Iraq has borne the steepest production reduction among the major producers, with output down roughly 70%. The UAE, which was pumping approximately 3.4 million barrels per day before hostilities began, has seen its production cut by more than half. Saudi Arabia, the world’s top exporter, has reduced output by 20%.
Shipping data from analytics firms Kpler and Vortexa point to a dramatic falloff in actual export volumes. Kpler data shows combined crude, condensate, and refined fuel exports from eight regional producers — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE — averaged 9.71 million barrels per day in the week ending March 15, a 61% drop from February’s 25.13 million bpd. Vortexa’s figures are starker, recording just 7.5 million bpd for the same period, representing a 71% decline from February’s 26.1 million bpd.
Before the conflict, those eight countries collectively accounted for 36% of global seaborne oil exports, based on Kpler’s baseline figure of 70.43 million bpd.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil normally flows, has effectively closed to regular traffic, forcing exporters to cancel shipments and idle oilfields. Crude prices have climbed to four-year highs, while certain refined fuel prices have hit record levels.
With the strait largely blocked, volumes that would ordinarily have shipped are piling up offshore. “Floating storage of Middle Eastern crude has surpassed 50 million barrels this week, up from pre-war levels of around 10 million barrels,” said Kpler analyst Johannes Rauball. The actual export decline may be worse than headline figures suggest, as some volumes are being diverted into floating storage without leaving Gulf waters.
Exports that have continued include flows from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea terminal at Yanbu, as well as shipments from Iran, Oman, and the UAE’s Fujairah port — though Fujairah itself has faced disruptions in recent days following drone strikes on loading infrastructure.
