The United Arab Emirates is poised to post the strongest economic growth in the Gulf this year, even as forecasts have been slightly trimmed amid global uncertainty.
According to a Reuters poll conducted between April 9 and 24, the UAE economy is expected to expand by 4.5% in 2025—down from the 5.0% projection made in January. Despite the revision, it remains the fastest growth forecast among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
Saudi Arabia’s growth is projected at 3.9%, a marginal decline from the earlier 4% estimate. Other GCC members are forecast to grow at more modest rates: Kuwait at 2.5%, Qatar at 2.7%, Oman at 2.8%, and Bahrain at 2.8%.
Economists surveyed by Reuters pointed to the global economic slowdown and soft oil demand as key risks, even though the region remains somewhat insulated from external factors like U.S. trade policies.
Brent crude prices have dipped to their lowest levels since the pandemic, and with OPEC+ expected to raise oil output in the coming months, energy revenue growth may remain subdued.
The International Monetary Fund also downgraded Saudi Arabia’s outlook recently, reflecting broader challenges across the region.
Inflation remains in check, with rates expected to range between 1.2% and 2.5%. Oman is forecast to see the lowest inflation, while Kuwait is projected to experience the highest. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are expected to see inflation average at around 2.0%.
