A newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR24, has the highest recorded chance of colliding with Earth, according to the Abu Dhabi-based International Astronomy Centre (IAC). Scientists say that while the threat remains uncertain, its close approach in 2032 requires further observation.
Detected on December 27, 2024, through the Atlas system telescopes, the asteroid measures between 40 to 100 meters in diameter—ranging from twice the length of a cricket pitch to the size of a football field.
In a Khaleej Times report, IAC director Mohammed Shawkat Odeh revealed that 2024 YR24 has been classified on the Torino scale with a 1.2% probability of impact—the highest recorded so far, surpassing the previously concerning asteroid Apophis.
The asteroid’s first recorded approach was on December 25, 2024, at a distance of 829,000 km. Another flyby is expected on December 17, 2028, with no threat. However, its December 22, 2032, passage is a concern, as it may come as close as 106,000 km, with a significant margin of uncertainty extending up to 1.6 million km.
Should an impact occur, potential zones include parts of Central and South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, and India. Experts compare its potential effects to the 1908 Tunguska event in Siberia, which flattened 2,000 square kilometers of forest.
Due to its low brightness, astronomers find it difficult to track 2024 YR24, but Odeh urged global observatories to monitor it closely. A clearer observation window is expected in 2028.
