A conviction that ends Vice President Sara Duterte’s political career would not close the door on a Duterte returning to Malacañang in 2028, according to allies of the family who have reportedly begun telling political figures that Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte could step in as the clan’s presidential contender.
The messaging, described by Politiko, casts the younger Duterte as a fallback option rather than a replacement for his sister, who remains the figure the opposition is building its 2028 hopes around. Supporters have moved to reassure allies that the family’s political franchise would survive intact even in the event she is disqualified from holding office.
That scenario hinges on the outcome of a Senate impeachment trial that opened July 6, 2026. Sara Duterte was impeached a second time by the House of Representatives on May 11, becoming the first Philippine vice president to face the process twice. The articles against her cover betrayal of public trust, culpable violation of the Constitution, graft and corruption, and bribery, tied largely to the alleged misuse of confidential funds at the Office of the Vice President and at the Department of Education, which she previously led. A guilty verdict carries not only removal from office but perpetual disqualification from public service — the mechanism that would foreclose her declared 2028 run.
The idea of positioning Baste as the family’s contingency is not new. In April, opposition lawmaker Antonio Tinio of ACT Teachers argued that the mayor’s installation as president of PDP-Laban revealed the Dutertes were preparing a “Plan B” precisely because they feared the impeachment could reach trial and end in conviction. “Malinaw na may Plan B ang mga Duterte: itong si Baste,” Tinio said at the time, adding that the appointment and a newly formed coalition were meant to give another Duterte a national platform. Former congressman Mike Defensor echoed the assessment, stating the family would field the mayor if the vice president were removed.
The mayor himself has kept his distance from the talk. Asked in The Hague — where his father, former president Rodrigo Duterte, is detained pending proceedings at the International Criminal Court — about the possibility that he or his brother, Davao City Representative Paolo “Pulong” Duterte, might run should Sara be ousted, he brushed it off. “You know, we let tomorrow take care of itself. Pero ‘yang mga ganun, sana ‘wag. Kapoy kaayo na,” he said.
In the same conversation, Baste maintained that the case against his sister was engineered to remove her from the 2028 equation. “Ginawa nila ang impeachment, the entire campaign for three years, kasi gusto nila sila pa rin. They are preventing the Vice President, Inday Sara Duterte, to run for the 2028 elections. ‘Yan ang main reason ng impeachment na iyan,” he said.
Malacañang has rejected that characterization. Palace press officer Claire Castro countered that if such a long-running plan truly existed, the vice president would have been more careful in managing the confidential funds now at the center of the case, and said she remains free to seek the presidency if she can establish her innocence.
Polling still favors the vice president despite her legal exposure. A Pulse Asia survey placed her as the front-runner for 2028 with 49 points, well ahead of former vice president Leni Robredo at 26. Under the rules governing the trial, senators cannot remove her without at least 16 of the 21 sitting judges voting to convict — a threshold that will determine whether the family’s fallback plan ever needs to be activated.
