A hypothetical match-up between two potential 2028 presidential tandems shows a narrow but notable gap favoring Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Senator Raffy Tulfo, according to OCTA Research’s First Quarter Tugon ng Masa survey.
The poll, which asked 1,200 adult Filipinos to choose between the two pairings in a simulated election scenario, placed the Robredo-Tulfo tandem at 44% against 40% for Vice President Sara Duterte and Senator Imee Marcos. Sixteen percent of respondents had yet to commit to either side, a share OCTA described as a “significant segment.”
OCTA noted the historical dimension of the result. “While the Duterte-Marcos tandem remains a major contender, the emergence of the Robredo-Tulfo tandem marks the first time in TNM Surveys that a tandem has surpassed the support for Duterte-Marcos tandem,” the research firm said.
The geographic breakdown tells sharply contrasting stories. Duterte and Marcos drew 86% support in Mindanao — by far their strongest base — while managing only 23% each in the NCR and Balance Luzon, and 40% in the Visayas.
Robredo and Tulfo, by contrast, led comfortably in the NCR at 61% and in Balance Luzon at 57%, with the Visayas at 48%. Their Mindanao standing, however, stood at just 5%.
OCTA characterized the national picture as fluid rather than settled. “The Q1 2026 results suggest a competitive tandem preference landscape, with only four percentage points separating the Robredo-Tulfo and Duterte-Marcos tandems at the national level,” it said.
The survey was conducted between March 19 and 25, 2026 through face-to-face interviews with probability-sampled respondents aged 18 and above. It carries a margin of error of ±3% at the 95% confidence level nationally, and ±6% for subnational estimates covering the NCR, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. The poll was non-commissioned.
