Nearly four weeks after the outbreak of the regional military conflict, the Middle East aviation sector is showing clear signs of recovery, with daily flight cancellations dropping sharply from their early-March peak.
Aviation analytics firm Cirium puts the cancellation rate at 14 percent as of March 23 — a steep fall from the 65 percent recorded on March 3, when disruptions were at their worst. On that same date, 333 of 2,452 scheduled departures either did not operate or were cancelled outright.
The cumulative toll since February 28, however, remains significant. Of roughly 55,000 flights scheduled across the region since the conflict began, close to 26,800 — just under half — were cancelled or did not fly.
Carriers hit hardest in percentage terms include Kuwait Airways, Gulf Air, and Iraqi Airways, each recording cancellation rates above 97 percent since the conflict started. Jazeera Airways and Qatar Airways also posted figures above 88 percent, according to Cirium data.
UAE-based airlines have fared comparatively better. Emirates, Etihad Airways, Air Arabia, and flydubai have collectively restored service to around 150 destinations, spanning Asia, Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Australia. Airspace restrictions continue to limit full operations, but major markets — including India, Pakistan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia — are being served.
Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at StrategicAero Research, said the pace of UAE carrier recovery has been notable. “Emirates and Etihad have astonishingly managed to resume a sizeable proportion of their networks — so right now, they seem better placed to re-establish normal operations very quickly — perhaps in as little as 10-14 days,” he said.
Emirates had previously indicated it expects a return to its full network within days, contingent on airspace access and operational conditions being met.
Ahmad cautioned, though, that network recovery is only one measure of the sector’s health. Load factors remain a concern. “While there’s no doubt Emirates and Etihad have led the charge in reinstating up to 70 per cent of their networks — as is the case for Emirates — many flights are still operating well below passenger capacity,” he said.
For carriers outside the UAE, Ahmad said a longer timeline to full recovery is likely.
The longer-term picture, he argued, depends less on scheduling and more on geopolitics. “The real issue is not what the ‘new normal’ looks like — the bigger issue is whether, once the fighting ends, it will be over for good or whether there is an inherent risk of conflict breaking out again. At this stage, no one has an answer. But if hostilities do end permanently, as per Iran, then the allure of the Middle East can be restored to full strength relatively quickly, especially with the summer season approaching,” Ahmad said.
