A new study published in Science suggests that Earth is due for another ice age in about 11,000 years, but human-caused global warming could interfere with this natural cycle.
According to an AFP report, researchers analyzed a million-year record of climate shifts, focusing on how subtle changes in Earth’s orbit around the Sun have historically driven glacial and interglacial periods. They found that three key orbital factors—tilt, wobble, and the shape of Earth’s orbit—play a major role in triggering ice ages.
Without human influence, the next glaciation would be expected to begin within the next 11,000 years and last about 66,000 years, according to lead author Stephen Barker from Cardiff University. However, with carbon dioxide levels continuing to rise, the study warns that Antarctica could completely melt in about 8,000 years, causing sea levels to rise by approximately 70 meters.
Co-author Lorraine Lisiecki from the University of California, Santa Barbara, emphasized that the study reinforces the predictability of Earth’s natural climate cycles. But Barker cautioned that climate change should not be seen as beneficial, as unchecked greenhouse gas emissions could lead to catastrophic consequences.
The research team plans to further investigate how human-driven climate change might reshape Earth’s long-term climate patterns.
