Inflation in the Philippines likely dropped for a second consecutive month in September, potentially falling below 3% due to slower food prices and favorable base effects, according to leading economists.
BPI lead economist Jun Neri estimated that the consumer price index (CPI) fell to 2.4% from August’s 3.3%, citing declines in rice, meat, vegetables, and oil prices. Additionally, the appreciation of the peso against the US dollar supported lower inflation.
However, rising electricity rates, cooking gas prices, and higher fish and fruit costs may have countered these declines. Philippine National Bank economist Alvin Arogo forecasted a 2.8% inflation rate, matching January’s level, while Security Bank chief economist Robert Dan Roces projected a 2.5% inflation rate, noting the continued impact of slower food prices.
The Philippine Statistics Authority is set to release official inflation data on Friday, Oct. 4.
Despite potential inflationary pressures from oil and typhoons, economists expect the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to continue its cautious approach, with a possible 25-basis-point interest rate cut in October and December.
